Nigeria’s Food Trade Deficit, despite the Nigerian government’s persistent efforts to bolster food production through intervention programs, the nation has encountered a substantial food trade deficit totaling N4.92 trillion between 2018 and 2022. This disconcerting trend has raised concerns about the country’s self-sufficiency in food production and its economic implications.
A glaring deficiency in domestic food production has compelled Nigeria to rely heavily on imports to feed its burgeoning population. Within a five-year span, from 2018 to 2022, the value of imported foods surged by an astonishing 121.7 percent. In 2022, imports reached a staggering N1.9 trillion, compared to N857 billion in 2018.
This escalating reliance on imports can be attributed to several factors, Nigeria’s Food Trade Deficit with the growing insecurity across the nation’s agricultural belt being a significant contributor. Widespread violence and instability have forced many farmers to abandon their lands, leading to a rise in food imports. The Nigerian government has consequently been forced to spend substantial amounts annually on food imports, a situation further exacerbated by rising insecurity.
Data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reveals the depth of this challenge. Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria’s agricultural imports stood at N6.916 trillion, while agricultural exports amounted to N1.997 trillion. This discrepancy resulted in an alarming agricultural trade deficit of N4.919 trillion.
Delving into yearly statistics, the trend becomes clearer. Agricultural imports have steadily increased since 2018, starting at N857 billion and escalating to N959 billion in 2019, N1.2 trillion in 2020, N2 trillion in 2021, before moderately declining to N1.9 trillion in 2022. During the same period, agricultural exports experienced an upward trajectory, rising from N302 billion in 2018 to N598 billion in 2022, indicating a significant 98 percent growth.
Analysts have highlighted that this export growth is more due to aggressive non-oil export promotion programs rather than substantial production increase, casting doubts on its long-term viability for the nation’s food security.
While insecurity undeniably contributes to the downturn in food production, the decline in agricultural output is not solely due to this factor. The costs of crucial farming inputs, such as seeds, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, and agro machinery, have surged significantly during this period. This has impeded farmers’ capacity to expand their production and has led to a reduction in output.
The Nigerian government’s interventions, including initiatives like the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), have sought to alleviate the situation. However, despite disbursing over N1.08 trillion through the ABP between 2015 and 2022, the impact remains limited. Additional programs, such as the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) and Accelerated Agricultural Development programme, have also failed to bridge the substantial supply gap in staple foods.
The challenges facing Nigerian agriculture are complex. While agriculture constitutes 22 percent of the nation’s GDP and employs over 80 percent of its population, the sector grapples with issues like low productivity, post-harvest losses, fragmented markets, and inefficient value chain logistics. The prevailing environment restricts the potential of smallholder farmers, who are vital for food production in the country.
Experts emphasize the need for more robust government interventions in the agriculture sector, with a focus on improving input accessibility, technology adoption, financing, processing, marketing, logistics, land access, and storage. Additionally, enhancing security will be pivotal for the sector’s growth and overall food security.
The concerning food trade deficit and its associated challenges underscore the urgent need for comprehensive reforms, enhanced investments, and strategic policies to create a more resilient and self-reliant agricultural sector in Nigeria.
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